Padres Have Decisions To Make As Opening Day Approaches

As is always the case, with opening day approaching decisions about final 25-man rosters are soon to be made.  And as is also always the case, surprises arise both good and bad that can sometimes make these decisions difficult.

 The Padres are getting lots of surprises this spring of both the good and bad variety, the most recent being Chase Headley’s broken thumb which will cause him to likely miss at least the first two weeks of the regular season.  Given what we know today, with 12 days left, what are some possible moves and decisions the Pads front office and coaching staff will need to make as opening day against the Mets closes in?

• JEDD GYORKO – Coming into spring the spotlight was on the Padres top hitting prospect, and whether he was ready to break with the big club.  Few doubt whether the bat is ready after hitting .328 with 24 hR’s and 83 RBI in AAA last season.  The question has been the ability to transition to 2B from his natural 3B.  Would he show enough range, and get his foot work up to speed around the bag to not be a liability in the field?  Based on what I’ve seen this spring the question has been answered, and the answer in my opinion is YES.  Yes, he has shown range, yes he has shown proficiency to turn the double play, yes he can hit, and yes barring injury, or some bizarre total flame-out he will make this opening day roster.  Credit the Pads front office as well for not allowing the start of the service time clock to inhibit what will ultimately be a baseball only decision.  Adding him to the opening day roster will require a 40-man roster move – possibly like Rymer Liriano to the 60-day to make room.
• WHO PLAYS 3B?  Although the news about Chase Headley’s thumb being broken is bad, the news could have been worse. At least there is no talk so far of injured tendons or ligaments which can often require surgery and a much longer healing time.  Breaks are fairly predictable with both the time it takes to come back, and a full recovery.  That being said, he will likely miss the first two weeks at a minimum, so who takes over the hot corner until he returns?  Manager Buddy Black has multiple options, but for me it’s Logan Forsythe.  Although some may argue that Gyorko may be the better option as his natural position is 3B, and he could make his MLB debut at a position he has played more throughout his career, my preference would be for Jedd to stay at 2B.  The reason is two fold.  First, given that he has spent the end of last season, all off season, and all spring preparing to be a second baseman, I think it is actually less mentally jarring for him to stay there as the season starts. This is what he has been physically and emotionally anticipating and preparing for, so allow that process to continue to move forward undisturbed.  To now make a sudden and short term move to 3B in my opinion only creates more to think about instead of focusing on hitting major league sliders.  Second, Forsythe has been preparing all off season and spring to be a utility man – let him do his job.  He showed previously that he is very solid third baseman with probably even better range than the gold glover he is temporarily replacing. 
• WHAT IF FORSYTHE CAN’T PLAY?  Logan has been battling several aches and pains this spring, the most concerning being a case of plantar fasciitis that has required time off and an injection.  He has missed almost the past two weeks, but is scheduled to be back in games possibly by Friday.  From personal experience, however, I know those foot problems can linger and be troublesome.  Hopefully he can answer the bell on April 1st.  If not, the Pads have a deeper problem than just who plays 3rd, as they will also be short their primary middle infield back up.  Alexi Amarista all of a sudden becomes a more important player on Buddy’s lineup card as he can also cover all the infield positions from 2B on over, but it still leaves manager Buddy Black short on infield options off his bench.  The Pads may need to purchase the contract of veteran Cody Ransom who can play 3B (although you may have to move Gyorko over there depending on whether Buddy prefers to have RHB Ransom, or LHB Amarista bat in lineup), and has the most MLB playing time at the middle infield positions of the other infielders in camp.  This would obviously require another 40-man roster move – possibly Casey Kelly to 60-day if he ends up having season ending surgery.  Interesting how all of a sudden the health of Logan Forsythe could be quite pivotal for the Padres as they look to hold down the fort until Headley returns.
• WHAT IF QUENTIN ISN’T READY?  There is no question what Carlos Quentin adds to the middle of the Padres lineup both in his production, and his protection of Chase Headley who hits in front of him.  Although the hope was that off season surgery in october to the right knee that caused him to miss time at the beginning of last season would allow him to have a healthy 2013, so far the results have been uncertain at best.  He started games late this spring in an effort to take stress off the knee, but since making efforts to resume game like activities the knee has not responded consistently, and he has had to back off several times to allow it to calm down.  The hope was that he would have 40-60 at bats by opening day, but right now he has 17 plate appearances in the big league games, with several more in minor league appearances.  He may not reach the at bat total he was hoping for, but for me that is not a huge concern because the veteran can flat out hit.  The perfect timing may not be locked in from day one, but it won’t take long in my opinion to get the power stroke going…as long as he has his legs underneath him.  And that’s the concern still.  Will he be able to play the outfield, and run the bags without aggravating the knee to the point where it affects his ability to hit.  To a large extent it can be argued that any Padre success this season will likely depend on it.  If it turns out that he is not ready to play opening day, my choice would be for Kyle Blanks to be the opening day left fielder.  The “88 Train” has hit .370 this spring with 2 homeruns, and has looked healthy and agile in both left field and at first base.  Hard to believe Kyle is still only 25, and has shown that no park in MLB can hold his power when healthy.  Despite his solid spring I think the Pads would still be hesitant to keep him as a bat off the bench because of his relative inexperience at that role, and preference to keep him swinging everyday, but he could get those daily reps with the big club if Q’s knee is not cooperating.
• WHO’S THE 5TH STARTER?  Who knows?  Some of the early front runners from a deep list of candidates have been eliminated such as Casey Kelly (likely elbow surgery), and Robbie Erlin (reassigned).  That leaves Freddy Garcia, and Tyson Ross, and Anthony Bass from the original group of expected contenders.  Garcia has had one good outing to hang his hat on, and the rest have been filled with mistakes up in the zone that have been hit hard. You want to allow a veteran who now relies on location and finesse time to get his stuff going, but time and opportunities to show that he can be consistent every 5th day without killing the bullpen are running out.  Ross has definitely shown the power arm that everyone knows about, but for me there are still a lot of mistakes in the strike zone that are not being barreled up now, but come regular season MLB hitters will not be as forgiving.  There has been improvement with the FB and off speed command, and there will likely continue to be as he works with Darren Balsley, but will it be enough in time for opening day, or is he better served refining further in Tucson?  Anthony Bass was not getting extended outings early, but was allowed to go 3 innings in his last game against the Dodgers.   What I’ve seen in Anthony this spring is better command in the strike zone with his at times overpowering fastball, and more confidence in his change up.   These two developments would give me more confidence that he can be a starter who can get past the 5th inning and out of jams more easily than in the past, but I still get the sense that the Pads are planning on having him start the season in the bullpen unless none of the other starter options work out.   We mentioned there are always surprises in camp and there are three positive ones that have appeared in the hunt for the last rotation spot; Andrew Cashner, Tim Stauffer, and Sean O’Sullivan.  Cashner was not expected to be throwing until April, yet he is way ahead of schedule from off season surgery to repair the lacerated tendon he suffered in his throwing thumb during a hunting accident during the winter.  His fastball looks as overpowering as ever (smooth 96-97 MPH), with the change up being his best secondary pitch right now, and the slider still finding the feel for.  The question is now whether he can get the pitch count up in time for the start of the season…and whether the Pads want to push him to do so?  Sure, the Padres see him as hopefully one of their top starters during the year, but with his history of injuries the last thing they want to do is push him to be ready for his first start but then lose him agin for another extended period has happened to him the past two seasons.  Keep in mind also that the Padres have off days each of the first two weeks which could allow them some latitude with pitch counts and days rest for Cashner to help facilitate his breaking with the club.  Stauffer was also an injury question coming off of elbow surgery last year, but has looked healthy and was effective in his first two appearances.  Extended innings in his last two games have not been as successful, however, but he still could be a familiar alternative if he can  finish spring with a couple of strong efforts.  O’Sullivan, the San Diego native and Valhalla H.S. alumnus, has been nothing but solid in his 5 outings this spring.  Not necessarily dominating with any one pitch, but throws strikes, uses his repertoire, and seems to understand now who he is mechanically, and as a pitcher.  A long shot to make the club out of spring for sure, but at least if I’m the Pads I’m feeling some comfort that I have what appears to be some dependable depth.  Finally, it is still possible that the Pads could try to pick up another younger, controllable arm via trade if one becomes available as other clubs start to pare down their rosters and look to fill their own gaps and unexpected late spring injury needs.

There is still a lot that can happen during these last 12 days of spring, an probably will.  While all of these questions will be answered, new ones may arise.  The fights for the last spots in the rotation, the bullpen, and bench are always fluid situations, and opinions of decision makers can run hot and cold by the day.  The health of Quentin and Forsythe will determine a lot, and the rotation decisions will be answered by the candidates through their final few spring outings.  In other words, there is a lot to keep our eyes on during these final two weeks in Peoria…stay tuned!

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