Well, it’s finally done. After at least two full seasons of speculation, innuendo, and failed attempts, Adrian Gonzalez has been traded.
That the Red Sox were the winners of the Gonzo sweepstakes is no surprise. The boys from Beantown have been in hot pursuit of the 3-time All-Star, well before the arrival of Theo Epstein’s protégé, Jed Hoyer, and former Red Sox scouting director Jason McLeod to the Padres front office. So the questions begin. Did Adrian “have” to be traded? Was now really the right time? Is there any silver lining for Padres fans? Let’s take a look.
Did Adrian “Have” to be traded? Yes. There are two resources that a team must have to warrant awarding the type of long term, high salary contract that Adrian was deservedly seeking.
Obviously they must have the revenue to support such a financial commitment. This is not necessarily based on the magnitude of the personal wealth of the principal owner. Most clubs operate on a team payroll that is around 45% on average of total team revenues (ticket sales, broadcast rights, parking, concessions, etc.).
The Padres rank as the 6th lowest revenue producing team at $157M, according to Forbes magazine. While they spent only 26% of that on player payroll last season, even if they reach the 45% average of the rest of the league, the total team payroll would be $70M. It is very difficult for any team to justify putting almost 35% of their total payroll into one player. It almost never results in a winning team…unless it has the second resource.
The other necessary resource that is overlooked, but paramount to making this kind of investment remotely plausible, is a depth of overall talent throughout your organization, especially the minor league system. There is no point in having a “Superstar” player if he has no supporting cast around him.
Team after team has tried putting most of heir eggs into one basket, and it almost never works. What usually results is the team struggles, the Superstar pouts, and the fans don’t show up to watch a losing team with an overpaid prima donna who isn’t helping his club win. Yes, fans want to see players they know, but even more so they want to watch players who win.
Because of years of underperformance by the Padres’ draft and development system, they are not in a position to currently and consistently provide major league quality players to support a huge salaried Superstar. Jed Hoyer knows this, which is why not only did he understand and follow orders to trade Adrian, but opted to create a package in return that consisted of the greatest number of quality future talents, instead of a smaller and lesser talented package of players closer to helping the major league club today.
He needed to stock the stables with players who could begin to create that necessary feeder system of consistent and impacting talent to the major league club. Once that system is in place, then even a smaller market club like the Padres can begin to entertain keeping some of their homegrown stars (Like the Twins did with Joe Mauer), knowing that more talent is on the way, and revenues can be maintained if not grown through the quality of product drawing fans and local broadcasting dollars.
Was now the right time to trade Adrian? No. The best time to have moved him for maximum potential return was probably in 2009. With 2 years remaining on his hugely undervalued contract, his return value was at its highest. Then GM, Kevin Towers, explored trading Gonzo to the Red Sox at that time, but reportedly continued to ask for more and more in return, until Boston finally cried uncle and acquired Victor Martinez instead.
Last season it was apparent that new GM Jed Hoyer, and the entire marketing department, was anticipating moving Adrian during the 2010 season, but once the team surprisingly took the lead in the NL West early on, trade talks were shelved.
So, here the Padres were, approaching the 2011 season with only one year remaining on the best bargain contract in baseball, and no way to retain the player. With only a handful of teams that were even possible candidates to take on a first baseman, and his contract extension demands, Hoyer’s options were limited to begin with. Were he to wait until the July 31st deadline, the number of viable suitors could have been even less. The risk of not moving Adrian, and taking only a first round and a supplemental draft pick, or moving him for a marginal major leaguer and a suspect (like happened to the Braves when they traded Mark Texeira at the 2007 deadline) was too big a gamble to take. He smartly pulled the trigger on a deal with an organization whose talent he and his staff knew as well as anyone’s in baseball.
As for Adrian, I wish him and his wife, Betsy, nothing but the best in Boston. Not only did he give the Padres 5 years of anticipation filled at bats that you wanted to watch, as well as gold glove caliber work at first base, but he and his wife also gave a lot of their time, talents, and treasure to the San Diego community. Class acts all the way…maybe someday all the way to Cooperstown.
So, the bets have been placed, and the dice are cast. If the Padres can hit their number, and one or more of these newly acquired, young players are impacting the big club in a couple of years, this trade may be looked at as a turning point in the rise of the Padres to an organization capable of creating self sustaining, major league talent. Then, and only then, will the Padres have any reason to make the kind of investment in a single player like that which Adrian was justifiably looking for.
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